Stably Weekly Newsletter – 04/24/2024
Announcements & Product Updates
- List your asset for free on Stably Ramp: We now offer a zero-fee listing program to any third-party project interested in listing its assets on Stably Ramp. In exchange, the project can integrate the Stably Ramp iFrame widget, enabling its users to onboard from 170+ countries/regions and buy, sell, or swap these assets with stablecoins and traditional payment methods. Interested projects only need to apply. We will list the requested asset within 30 days if (1) we can source on-chain liquidity for it, (2) the project completes integrating Stably Ramp, and (3) the project passes our internal compliance review process.
Market & Industry Highlights
- 04/17 (CoinDesk) – USDe Holders Should Monitor Ethena’s Reserve Fund to Avoid Risk
- 04/18 (Cointelegraph) – Tether Announces Restructuring to Go Beyond Stablecoins
- 04/19 (CoinDesk) – Google Searches for ‘Bitcoin Halving’ Get Higher Than 4/20
- 04/20 (The Block) – The Bitcoin Halving Has Taken Place. Now It Gets Interesting
- 04/21 (CryptoPotato) – CEX Trading Volumes Nearly Triple Since October 2023
- 04/22 (Bloomberg) – Two SEC Lawyers Resign for Abuse of Power in Crypto Case
- 04/23 (Cointelegraph) – Tether Vows to Freeze Assets If Venezuela Tries to Bypass Sanctions
- 04/24 (U.Today) – Vitalik Buterin Speaks Out Against ZKasino Amid Rugpull
- Market Commentary from QCP Capital: BTC is right smack in the middle 60/73k range and BTC front-end vols have trickled down closer to 60%. Just last week, we had the fourth BTC halving and the market was panicking over the outbreak of war in the Middle East (which has since de-escalated).
What can we make of this unsettling quietness in the market?
Leverage has been reset in the market with funding negative to flat and forwards yielding a neutral 10%. Demand from TradFi continues to stream in albeit at a slower pace with BlackRock posting 70 consecutive days of inflows.
Is this the calm before the (bullish) storm?
The market is expecting the upside to be capped and for the spot price to consolidate in the short term. Notably, there was concentrated selling of BTC end-May 80k calls in yesterday’s NY session (over 1000 BTC) which crushed both front-end vols and forwards. May vols are now close to 60% and the May forward was pushed down to 5% yield at one point! The forward curve is now upward sloping with only Sep and further out still yielding over 10%… for now.
7-day crypto price performance heatmap.
- Junk Bonds Commentary from Stably: In times of market stress, bond ETFs have consistently provided price discovery and the ability for investors to express their differing investment views in real time. Historically, when junk bond ETFs were above their 200-day moving average, it indicated a risk-on investor sentiment typically bullish for risk assets. Conversely, being below this average may suggest bearishness. For more information, please refer to this hypothetical backtest for trading Bitcoin based on 200-day moving average signals from the JNK ETF.
As of today, JNK is 3.30 points above its 200-day moving average (vs. an all-time average of 1.20 points). This could be interpreted as a bullish signal for both equities and crypto in the short term.
Top pane: JNK with a 200-day simple moving average. Center pane: S&P 500. Bottom pane: BTC.
- Alt Season Commentary from Stably: The 12-Month Alt Season Index is an indicator that measures the relative price performance of altcoins vs. Bitcoin in the previous 12 months. When the Index rises above 50, it signifies altcoins outperforming Bitcoin which is typically associated with major crypto market rallies (for example, during the 2021 bull market and DeFi Summer 2020).
As of today, the Index’s value is 33. This could be interpreted as Bitcoin outperforming altcoins for the time being, which means that a major crypto rally and alt season are still not in play, yet.
12-Month Alt Season Index.
- DeFi & Stablecoin Commentary from Stably: DeFi total value locked (TVL) and total stablecoin market capitalization are two reliable on-chain metrics to assess the crypto market’s current health. Rising TVL and stablecoin market capitalization indicate an increasing level of investor trust and engagement within the DeFi ecosystem, suggesting a robust and growing market. On the other hand, declining TVL and stablecoin supplies can signal a decrease in market liquidity and investor confidence, often reflecting bearish market sentiments.
As of today, the total TVL in DeFi and the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at $165.24 billion (+4.36% WoW) and $157.87 billion (+0.68% WoW), respectively. This could be interpreted as a bullish signal for the crypto market as well as DeFi in the short term.
DeFi TVL and total stablecoin market capitalization.
Other Updates
- Trustpilot Review: As a valued user of Stably Ramp, your experience with our platform is highly valuable to us. We would greatly appreciate it if you could share your thoughts on TrustPilot, helping others to understand the benefits of our service. Your feedback is not only appreciated but also instrumental in shaping our community and services.
Stably is a venture-backed FinTech from Seattle, Washington. We provide regulatory-compliant stablecoin and onramp infrastructure for emerging blockchains, Web3 applications, and financial institutions, enabling their users in 170+ countries/regions to easily buy, sell, or swap digital assets at competitive rates across multiple blockchain networks with stablecoins and fiat payments. Our mission is to power the next billion Web3 users with a superior fiat & stablecoin onramp.
For all inquiries, feel free to contact us.
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