Stably Weekly Newsletter – 02/12/2024

Announcements & Product Updates

• PayPal USD & First Digital USD are now available: PYUSD (Ethereum) and FDUSD (Ethereum, BSC) are two of the latest US Dollar-backed stablecoin entrants in the space, both of which have been growing exponentially by several billions of dollars in combined market capitalization. They are now available for trading on Stably Ramp.

• Euro stablecoins are now available: Four Euro-pegged stablecoins are now available for trading on Stably Ramp, including fiat-backed stablecoins like EURS (Ethereum), EURC (Ethereum), and EURT (Ethereum), plus a DeFi stablecoin, agEUR (Ethereum).

• Next batch of asset listings coming this week: We are currently getting ready for the next batch of asset listings on Stably Ramp which will take our total number of supported assets from 120+ to 200+ by the end of this month. This will also include assets on newly supported networks such as Base, Linea, Polygon zkEVM, and zkSync Era. Stay tuned!

• List your asset for free on Stably Ramp: We now offer a zero-fee listing program to any third-party project interested in listing its assets on Stably Ramp. In exchange, the project can integrate the Stably Ramp iFrame widget, enabling its users to onboard from 170+ countries/regions and buy, sell, or swap these assets with stablecoins and traditional payment methods. Interested projects only need to apply. We will list the requested asset within 30 days if (1) we can source on-chain liquidity for it, (2) the project completes integrating Stably Ramp, and (3) the project passes our internal compliance review process.

Market & Industry Highlights

• • 02/06 (Trustnodes) – Solana block production halts, validators confirm major outage
  • 02/06 (Finbold) – Monero sell-off alert: Binance sets date to delist XMR
  • 02/06 (BeInCrypto) – Ethereum Name Services partners with GoDaddy, ENS surges 14%
  • 02/09 (Forkast) – Ethereum sets March 13 for Dencun upgrade
  • 02/09 (Cointelegraph) – Apple poised to bring metaverse mainstream & dominate the market
  • 02/09 (Bitcoinist) – US Senators call out SEC’s Chairman for “misleading representations” in crypto case
  • 02/09 (Coinpaprika) – Binance’s $10K offer to employees aims to end insider trading & leaks
  • 02/10 (Cointelegraph) – Bitcoin ETFs hit $10B milestone just one month after approval
  • 02/12 (CoinDesk) – Bitcoin pushes through $50K for the first time since late 2021

• Market Commentary from QCP Capital: Since our last market update on 24 Jan, the market has ticked higher from the lows (BTC $38,500 and ETH $2,165). Two key reasons for this:

• • Reduction of GBTC flows / net positive BTC spot ETF inflows
    
    Daily GBTC outflows have reduced from $500-600M daily to just $100-200M now. Total inflows across all BTC ETFs are now positive!

Bitcoin spot ETF flows.

On a side note, we have observed some price idiosyncrasies around the spot ETF fixings. Between 3-4pm EST, prices tend to tick higher. This is possibly because IBIT (BlackRock ETF) uses a 1hr observation window from 3-4pm EST for use in calculating the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the ETF and participants involved in the creation of ETF units hedge their exposure in this window. Conversely, we generally see downward pressure on price after 4pm EST as GBTC uses a point fix at 4pm EST which means that market makers have to sell around and after that time.

• • Strong price action in US equities

In spite of the hawkish-leaning Fed (with Powell pushing back on any cuts in March) and higher US yields on the back of a strong Feb NFP (353K actual vs. 180K expected), US equities continue to outperform, with the likes of NVDA and META rallying on strong earnings and positive headlines.

It is likely that any dip in equities will continue to be bought as underallocated investors chase returns. On the back of this bullish sentiment, BTC and ETH are likely to follow, coupled with the BTC halving and ETH spot ETF narratives.

7-day crypto price performance heatmap.

• Junk Bonds Commentary from Stably: In times of market stress, bond ETFs have consistently provided price discovery and the ability for investors to express their differing investment views in real time. Historically, when junk bond ETFs were above their 200-day moving average, it indicated a risk-on investor sentiment typically bullish for risk assets. Conversely, being below this average may suggest bearishness. For more information, please refer to this hypothetical backtest for trading Bitcoin based on 200-day moving average signals from the JNK ETF.
  
  As of today, JNK is 5.08 points above its 200-day moving average (vs. an all-time average of 1.20 points). This could be interpreted as a very bullish signal for both equities and crypto in the short term.

Top pane: JNK with a 200-day simple moving average. Center pane: S&P 500. Bottom pane: BTC.

• Alt Season Commentary from Stably: The 12-Month Alt Season Index is an indicator that measures the relative price performance of altcoins vs. Bitcoin in the previous 12 months. When the Index rises above 50, it signifies altcoins outperforming Bitcoin which is typically associated with major crypto market rallies (for example, during the 2021 bull market and DeFi Summer 2020).
  
  As of today, the Index’s value is 24. This could be interpreted as Bitcoin outperforming altcoins for the time being, which means that a major crypto market rally is still not in play, yet.

12-Month Alt Season Index.

• DeFi & Stablecoin Commentary from Stably: DeFi total value locked (TVL) and total stablecoin market capitalization are two reliable on-chain metrics to assess the crypto market’s current health. Rising TVL and stablecoin market capitalization indicate an increasing level of investor trust and engagement within the DeFi ecosystem, suggesting a robust and growing market. On the other hand, declining TVL and stablecoin supplies can signal a decrease in market liquidity and investor confidence, often reflecting bearish market sentiments.
  
  As of today, the total TVL in DeFi and the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at $127.06 billion (+14.05% WoW) and $136.73 (+0.76% WoW), respectively. This could be interpreted as a very bullish signal for the crypto market as well as DeFi in the short term.

DeFi TVL and total stablecoin market capitalization.

Other Updates

• Trustpilot Review: As a valued user of Stably Ramp, your experience with our platform is highly valuable to us. We would greatly appreciate it if you could share your thoughts on TrustPilot, helping others to understand the benefits of our service. Your feedback is not only appreciated but also instrumental in shaping our community and services.