Stably Weekly Newsletter – 03/19/2024

Announcements & Product Updates

Our business and marketing teams have returned from an engaging and productive two weeks spent at ETHDenver and ETHVietnam. The lack of recent weekly updates was due to our participation in these events. We’re thrilled to be back, however, and eager to share many exciting updates and new partnerships from our trip!

• Polymesh USDS is now live: Our USDS stablecoin is now live on the Polymesh! This partnership enables global users to acquire a regulatory-compliant US Dollar stablecoin for on-chain settlement and trading activities on the Polymesh network, an institutional-grade permissioned blockchain built specifically for regulated assets. Polymesh USDS is available through Stably Ramp here.

• USDS coming soon to Fraxtal: We are planning to expand USDS to the Fraxtal L2 network to power fiat on/off-ramp transactions and DeFi activities in Q2. Stay tuned for more updates!

• Fraxtal DeFi Protocol: We are in early discussions with Frax to contribute to the development and launch of a stablecoin-powered DeFi protocol on Fraxtal. Official details about the project will be released in Q2.

• Stably Wins 1st Place at ETHVietnam’s Hackathon: Our engineers won two 1st place prizes at the ETHVietnam Hackathon last week for deploying a DeFi DApp prototype on Linea’s testnet. It was an honor for our team to receive the announcement on stage from Vitalik Buterin and we’re very excited about the near-future prospects of our development.

• New Blockchain Support for 2024: We are in discussion with the teams of ICP, Sei, and opBNB, among others, to enable fiat on/off-ramp support for their ecosystems this year. opBNB support is expected to go live in Q2 and the rest throughout 2024.
  

• List your asset for free on Stably Ramp: We now offer a zero-fee listing program to any third-party project interested in listing its assets on Stably Ramp. In exchange, the project can integrate the Stably Ramp iFrame widget, enabling its users to onboard from 170+ countries/regions and buy, sell, or swap these assets with stablecoins and traditional payment methods. Interested projects only need to apply. We will list the requested asset within 30 days if (1) we can source on-chain liquidity for it, (2) the project completes integrating Stably Ramp, and (3) the project passes our internal compliance review process.

Market & Industry Highlights

• Market Commentary from QCP Capital (03/19): 

• • There is a sea of red this Asia morning with ETH breaking recent lows, touching 3,382.

• • The fear that we’ve been highlighting in ETH is growing with front-end downside skew getting deeper down to -15%.

• • In BTC, early spot ETF tracking shows a record outflow for GBTC of -$642.5m. We will be closely tracking the aggregate ETF flow numbers today. A net negative would be a distinctly bearish signal.

• • For the first time in a while, the overnight BTC spot ETFs saw outflows of -$154.3m. As expected, both BTC and ETH are breaking recent lows on the back of this.

• • Is this negative overnight number a pre-FOMC risk-squaring blip? Or the start of a series of net outflows, which would surely result in further correction?

• • This will be the most important number to look out for in the next few sessions. In spite of such a large spot move, perp funding rates are still 20-30% on the retail-focused exchanges. This means that speculators are still adding to leveraged longs on the dip. Does this mean the correction has more legs?

• 03/12 (CoinDesk) – Bitcoin’s Wild Four Hours: New Record of $73K, Tumble to $69K
• 03/13 (CryptoBriefing) – Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade Goes Live: How It Impacts L2 Gas Fees
• 03/15 (CNN) – Craig Wright is Not ‘Satoshi Nakamoto,’ UK Judge Rules
• 03/15 (CoinTelegraph) – Senators Pressure SEC Not to Approve Any More Crypto ETFs
• 03/15 (NewsBTC) – Bitcoin Suffers Crash to $65,000 as Spot ETF Inflows Wane
• 03/16 (Bloomberg) – SBF Considered ‘Coming Out as a Republican’ Amid FTX Collapse
• 03/17 (BeInCrypto) – Shiba Inu’s Silent Rise: Outshining Bitcoin and Ethereum
• 03/18 (CNN) – Developer Accidentally Burns $10.4 Million in SOL Meant for Memecoin Launch
• 03/19 (Reuters) – Bitcoin Slides 6%, While Altcoins Sparkles
• 03/19 (CoinDesk) – Genesis to Pay SEC $21M Penalty to Settle Charges Over Gemini Earn

7-day crypto price performance heatmap.

• Junk Bonds Commentary from Stably: In times of market stress, bond ETFs have consistently provided price discovery and the ability for investors to express their differing investment views in real-time. Historically, when junk bond ETFs were above their 200-day moving average, it indicated a risk-on investor sentiment typically bullish for risk assets. Conversely, being below this average may suggest bearishness. For more information, please refer to this hypothetical backtest for trading Bitcoin based on 200-day moving average signals from the JNK ETF.
  
  As of today, JNK is 4.99 points above its 200-day moving average (vs. an all-time average of 1.20 points). This could be interpreted as a very bullish signal for both equities and crypto in the short term.

Top pane: JNK with a 200-day simple moving average. Center pane: S&P 500. Bottom pane: BTC.

• Alt Season Commentary from Stably: The 12-Month Alt Season Index is an indicator that measures the relative price performance of altcoins vs. Bitcoin in the previous 12 months. When the Index rises above 50, it signifies altcoins outperforming Bitcoin which is typically associated with major crypto market rallies (for example, during the 2021 bull market and DeFi Summer 2020).
  
  As of today, the Index’s value is 35. This could be interpreted as Bitcoin outperforming altcoins for the time being, which means that a major crypto rally is still not in play, yet. 

12-Month Alt Season Index.

• DeFi & Stablecoin Commentary from Stably: DeFi total value locked (TVL) and total stablecoin market capitalization are two reliable on-chain metrics to assess the crypto market’s current health. Rising TVL and stablecoin market capitalization indicate an increasing level of investor trust and engagement within the DeFi ecosystem, suggesting a robust and growing market. On the other hand, declining TVL and stablecoin supplies can signal a decrease in market liquidity and investor confidence, often reflecting bearish market sentiments.
  
  As of today, the total TVL in DeFi and the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at $170.76 billion (-13.07% WoW) and $146.99 billion (+0.80% WoW), respectively. This could be interpreted as a neutral signal for the crypto market as well as DeFi in the short term.

Other Updates

• Trustpilot Review: As a valued user of Stably Ramp, your experience with our platform is highly valuable to us. We would greatly appreciate it if you could share your thoughts on TrustPilot, helping others to understand the benefits of our service. Your feedback is not only appreciated but also instrumental in shaping our community and services.